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DUBAI, UAE, Jan. 10, 2025 – Bybit, recognized as the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange globally by trading volume, has unveiled its latest weekly crypto derivatives report in collaboration with Blocks Scholes. This in-depth analysis highlights Bitcoin’s pullback from the $100k threshold just days into the new year. The findings reveal how on-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have been impacted by broader macroeconomic influences. The report underscores market uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s highly anticipated January 21 inauguration, a pivotal political event shaping investor sentiment.
Key Highlights from the Report:
A Holiday Dip in Perpetual Markets: The perpetual swap market witnessed a significant reduction in liquidity during the holiday season. Trading activity tapered off throughout December 2024, leading to a notable drop in realized volatility across the crypto space. Despite this, open interest remained steady at pre-December 2024 expiration levels, pointing to conservative strategies and limited hedging in perpetual swap markets.
Volatility Gaps Widen: The report identifies a striking divergence between 30-day implied volatility and 7-day realized volatility. Ethereum’s options markets displayed a clear preference for call options, while Bitcoin’s open interest is stabilizing post-December 2024 expiration. Both ETH and BTC have undergone significant shifts in their term structures entering 2025. This growing disparity between implied and realized volatility—the largest since the U.S. elections—suggests that traders are pricing in heightened risks, even as surface-level market conditions appear calm.
Ethereum Options Trends and Investor Sentiment: Ethereum’s open interest has seen a noticeable reshuffle. Although put options continue to dominate overall volumes, call contracts have gained traction since December 2024. However, this optimism is tempered by a slowdown in realized volatility early in the year, causing traders to adopt a cautious approach. The volatility term structure has steepened, with 30-day implied volatility standing over 15 points higher than its realized counterpart—the widest gap since the pre-election period of 2024, which was fueled by geopolitical concerns. Currently, this premium appears to stem more from speculative behavior than specific events, signaling persistent caution and uncertainty among investors.
About Bybit
Bybit ranks as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, supporting a thriving global community of over 60 million users. Established in 2018, Bybit aims to foster a more inclusive and decentralized ecosystem, bridging traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). Known for its secure infrastructure, intuitive platform, and commitment to blockchain innovation, Bybit is actively driving the evolution of Web3 by collaborating with top blockchain protocols. With diverse markets, robust custody solutions, and cutting-edge blockchain tools, Bybit empowers creators, builders, and enthusiasts to explore the full potential of decentralized finance. Explore the future of finance at Bybit.com.